Hurricane Hilary is bringing the Southern California a rare encounter with a tropical storm Sunday. This is the Sunday 3am report from the National Hurricane Center:
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
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Key messages for Hilary can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml.
RAINFALL: Hilary is expected to produce storm total rainfall
amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts up to 10
inches, across portions of the northern Baja California Peninsula
through tonight. Flash and urban flooding, locally catastrophic, is
expected, especially in the northern portions of the peninsula.
Heavy rainfall in association with Hilary is expected across the
Southwestern United States, peaking during the next day or so.
Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of 10
inches, are expected across portions of southern California and
southern Nevada. Dangerous to catastrophic flooding is expected.
Elsewhere across portions of the Western United States, rainfall
totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected, resulting in localized
significant flash flooding.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area this morning and are possible within the hurricane
watch area later today. Tropical storm conditions are occurring
within the southern portion of the tropical storm warning area and
will spread northward today. Tropical storm conditions are possible
within the tropical storm watch area this morning. Tropical storm
conditions are expected to begin in southern California later today.
Winds could be particularly strong and gusty in and near areas of
elevated terrain. Higher gusts are expected well inland and will
persist even after the system becomes post-tropical.
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal
flooding along the western Baja California peninsula of Mexico near
where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore winds, or
east of the center if Hilary makes landfall. The surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Coastal flooding is
possible along the northern coast of the Gulf of California
today through early Monday.
TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur today from mid-morning
through the evening over parts of the lower Colorado River Valley,
Mojave Desert, and Imperial Valley regions.
SURF: Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the
Baja California Peninsula and southern California over the next
couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.
In the Atlantic storms are lining up like planes arriving at an airport for a landing. This is an update from Saturday evening.
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Six, located several hundred miles east of the northern
Leeward Islands.
1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL98):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with a broad area of low pressure located several
hundred miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. However,
recent satellite wind data indicate the surface circulation is
elongated and lacks a well-defined center. Environmental conditions
still appear generally favorable for development, and a short-lived
tropical depression is likely to form later today or tonight while
it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph over the central
tropical Atlantic. By Monday, upper-level winds are forecast to
strengthen over the system, and further development is not expected.
For additional information on this system, including gale warnings,
see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
2. Eastern Caribbean (AL90):
An area of low pressure over the far eastern Caribbean Sea is
producing showers and thunderstorms with some signs of organization.
Additional development of this system is expected, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the early or middle part of this
week. The system is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern and central Caribbean during the
next couple of days, then turn northward and move over the
southwestern Atlantic Ocean by midweek. Regardless of development,
heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the Lesser Antilles
during the next couple of days. Interests in the eastern and central
Caribbean should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
3. Western Gulf of Mexico:
An area of disturbed weather located over the Straits of Florida and
the southern Florida peninsula will move into the Gulf of Mexico
later today, where a broad area of low pressure is expected to form
early this week. Some slow development of this system could occur
thereafter as it moves westward at about 15 to 20 mph, and a
tropical depression could form as it approaches the western Gulf of
Mexico coastline by Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
4. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the far
eastern tropical Atlantic is associated with a tropical wave.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression could form later this week
while it moves west-northwestward across the eastern tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Six are issued under WMO
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Six are issued under WMO
header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.
photo: Getty Images